Correlation between gene mutation status and molecular subtypes
Thyroid Adenocarcinoma (Primary solid tumor)
21 April 2013  |  analyses__2013_04_21
Maintainer Information
Citation Information
Maintained by TCGA GDAC Team (Broad Institute/MD Anderson Cancer Center/Harvard Medical School)
Cite as Broad Institute TCGA Genome Data Analysis Center (2013): Thyroid Adenocarcinoma (Primary solid tumor cohort) - 21 April 2013: Correlation between gene mutation status and molecular subtypes. Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. doi:10.7908/C1V122S2
Overview
Introduction

This pipeline computes the correlation between significantly recurrent gene mutations and molecular subtypes.

Summary

Testing the association between mutation status of 41 genes and 8 molecular subtypes across 323 patients, 20 significant findings detected with P value < 0.05 and Q value < 0.25.

  • BRAF mutation correlated to 'METHLYATION_CNMF',  'RPPA_CNMF',  'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL',  'MRNASEQ_CNMF',  'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL',  'MIRSEQ_CNMF', and 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'.

  • HRAS mutation correlated to 'CN_CNMF',  'METHLYATION_CNMF',  'RPPA_CNMF',  'MRNASEQ_CNMF',  'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL',  'MIRSEQ_CNMF', and 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'.

  • NRAS mutation correlated to 'METHLYATION_CNMF',  'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL',  'MRNASEQ_CNMF',  'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL',  'MIRSEQ_CNMF', and 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'.

Results
Overview of the results

Table 1.  Get Full Table Overview of the association between mutation status of 41 genes and 8 molecular subtypes. Shown in the table are P values (Q values). Thresholded by P value < 0.05 and Q value < 0.25, 20 significant findings detected.

Clinical
Features
CN
CNMF
METHLYATION
CNMF
RPPA
CNMF
RPPA
CHIERARCHICAL
MRNASEQ
CNMF
MRNASEQ
CHIERARCHICAL
MIRSEQ
CNMF
MIRSEQ
CHIERARCHICAL
nMutated (%) nWild-Type Fisher's exact test Fisher's exact test Fisher's exact test Fisher's exact test Fisher's exact test Fisher's exact test Fisher's exact test Fisher's exact test
BRAF 183 (57%) 140 0.0194
(1.00)
3.62e-38
(1.01e-35)
9.4e-07
(0.000255)
2.51e-11
(6.84e-09)
3.88e-49
(1.09e-46)
7.76e-49
(2.18e-46)
2.35e-40
(6.57e-38)
3.32e-43
(9.29e-41)
HRAS 12 (4%) 311 0.000222
(0.0586)
1.48e-06
(0.000399)
9.23e-05
(0.0245)
0.00529
(1.00)
1.71e-05
(0.00454)
5.23e-06
(0.0014)
1.69e-06
(0.000453)
9.25e-06
(0.00247)
NRAS 26 (8%) 297 0.00692
(1.00)
6.06e-14
(1.68e-11)
1
(1.00)
0.000583
(0.153)
1.63e-12
(4.47e-10)
1.11e-13
(3.08e-11)
1.87e-12
(5.13e-10)
3.3e-12
(9.02e-10)
EMG1 6 (2%) 317 0.548
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.327
(1.00)
0.0846
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
PTTG1IP 4 (1%) 319 1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.223
(1.00)
0.451
(1.00)
0.471
(1.00)
0.396
(1.00)
RPTN 8 (2%) 315 0.805
(1.00)
0.442
(1.00)
0.265
(1.00)
0.801
(1.00)
0.0267
(1.00)
0.663
(1.00)
0.74
(1.00)
0.672
(1.00)
EIF1AX 5 (2%) 318 0.731
(1.00)
0.0278
(1.00)
0.444
(1.00)
0.132
(1.00)
0.0654
(1.00)
0.0257
(1.00)
0.0634
(1.00)
0.199
(1.00)
CCDC15 5 (2%) 318 0.731
(1.00)
0.115
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.381
(1.00)
0.211
(1.00)
0.327
(1.00)
0.627
(1.00)
0.108
(1.00)
ZNF845 6 (2%) 317 0.42
(1.00)
0.637
(1.00)
0.639
(1.00)
0.125
(1.00)
0.943
(1.00)
0.552
(1.00)
0.875
(1.00)
0.334
(1.00)
ZNF878 4 (1%) 319 1
(1.00)
0.487
(1.00)
0.0475
(1.00)
0.561
(1.00)
0.694
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
TG 16 (5%) 307 1
(1.00)
0.0205
(1.00)
0.34
(1.00)
0.492
(1.00)
0.145
(1.00)
0.0643
(1.00)
0.0453
(1.00)
0.021
(1.00)
PRB2 6 (2%) 317 1
(1.00)
0.637
(1.00)
0.0801
(1.00)
0.851
(1.00)
0.415
(1.00)
0.623
(1.00)
0.529
(1.00)
0.518
(1.00)
R3HDM2 4 (1%) 319 0.0124
(1.00)
0.063
(1.00)
0.0598
(1.00)
0.0654
(1.00)
0.021
(1.00)
0.00694
(1.00)
IL32 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
0.742
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.209
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
TMCO2 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
0.416
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
0.2
(1.00)
0.5
(1.00)
0.214
(1.00)
0.418
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
PPTC7 3 (1%) 320 0.0791
(1.00)
0.0627
(1.00)
0.174
(1.00)
0.0688
(1.00)
0.312
(1.00)
0.292
(1.00)
MUC7 5 (2%) 318 0.731
(1.00)
0.372
(1.00)
0.683
(1.00)
0.26
(1.00)
0.806
(1.00)
0.908
(1.00)
0.869
(1.00)
0.631
(1.00)
LYPD3 3 (1%) 320 0.547
(1.00)
0.416
(1.00)
0.5
(1.00)
0.427
(1.00)
0.653
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
TMEM90B 3 (1%) 320 0.135
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
ZNF799 5 (2%) 318 0.465
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.505
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.598
(1.00)
0.908
(1.00)
0.453
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
PPM1D 5 (2%) 318 1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
0.125
(1.00)
0.695
(1.00)
0.212
(1.00)
0.869
(1.00)
0.328
(1.00)
MAP3K3 4 (1%) 319 0.061
(1.00)
0.224
(1.00)
0.459
(1.00)
0.0846
(1.00)
0.117
(1.00)
0.313
(1.00)
0.471
(1.00)
0.557
(1.00)
TROAP 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
0.742
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
0.535
(1.00)
0.751
(1.00)
0.85
(1.00)
0.533
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
SYNPO2L 3 (1%) 320 0.547
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
ATAD2 4 (1%) 319 1
(1.00)
0.823
(1.00)
0.813
(1.00)
0.561
(1.00)
0.694
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
KRAS 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
0.0627
(1.00)
0.174
(1.00)
0.0974
(1.00)
0.0661
(1.00)
0.0243
(1.00)
SLC5A11 3 (1%) 320 0.547
(1.00)
0.742
(1.00)
0.657
(1.00)
0.365
(1.00)
0.312
(1.00)
0.292
(1.00)
PRG4 4 (1%) 319 0.23
(1.00)
0.104
(1.00)
0.0143
(1.00)
0.028
(1.00)
0.471
(1.00)
0.557
(1.00)
SCUBE2 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
0.281
(1.00)
0.32
(1.00)
0.259
(1.00)
0.653
(1.00)
0.643
(1.00)
ZNF479 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
0.742
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.533
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
SREBF2 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
0.742
(1.00)
0.577
(1.00)
0.214
(1.00)
0.418
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
SLC26A11 3 (1%) 320 0.0791
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.375
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.776
(1.00)
0.398
(1.00)
TSC22D1 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.751
(1.00)
0.85
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.512
(1.00)
ANKRD30A 5 (2%) 318 0.731
(1.00)
0.462
(1.00)
0.75
(1.00)
0.514
(1.00)
0.743
(1.00)
0.744
(1.00)
FAM155A 4 (1%) 319 0.144
(1.00)
0.156
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
0.535
(1.00)
0.0361
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
SLA 3 (1%) 320 0.547
(1.00)
0.0627
(1.00)
0.286
(1.00)
0.285
(1.00)
0.174
(1.00)
0.0974
(1.00)
0.0661
(1.00)
0.0243
(1.00)
ZFHX3 10 (3%) 313 0.171
(1.00)
0.616
(1.00)
0.48
(1.00)
0.632
(1.00)
0.583
(1.00)
0.459
(1.00)
0.617
(1.00)
0.721
(1.00)
ARMCX3 3 (1%) 320 0.547
(1.00)
0.742
(1.00)
0.657
(1.00)
0.132
(1.00)
0.533
(1.00)
0.2
(1.00)
SLC25A45 3 (1%) 320 0.135
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.209
(1.00)
0.292
(1.00)
COL5A3 6 (2%) 317 0.752
(1.00)
0.317
(1.00)
0.778
(1.00)
0.758
(1.00)
0.0513
(1.00)
0.518
(1.00)
0.875
(1.00)
0.596
(1.00)
CDC27 3 (1%) 320 1
(1.00)
1
(1.00)
0.375
(1.00)
0.17
(1.00)
0.776
(1.00)
0.398
(1.00)
'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

P value = 3.62e-38 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 1e-35

Table S1.  Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #2: 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 105 52 166
BRAF MUTATED 10 30 143
BRAF WILD-TYPE 95 22 23

Figure S1.  Get High-res Image Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #2: 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus 'RPPA_CNMF'

P value = 9.4e-07 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.00025

Table S2.  Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #3: 'RPPA_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 62 76 79
BRAF MUTATED 19 57 42
BRAF WILD-TYPE 43 19 37

Figure S2.  Get High-res Image Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #3: 'RPPA_CNMF'

'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus 'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 2.51e-11 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 6.8e-09

Table S3.  Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #4: 'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 96 32 89
BRAF MUTATED 30 16 72
BRAF WILD-TYPE 66 16 17

Figure S3.  Get High-res Image Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #4: 'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL'

'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

P value = 3.88e-49 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 1.1e-46

Table S4.  Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #5: 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3 CLUS_4
ALL 106 39 74 96
BRAF MUTATED 5 22 60 91
BRAF WILD-TYPE 101 17 14 5

Figure S4.  Get High-res Image Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #5: 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 7.76e-49 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 2.2e-46

Table S5.  Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #6: 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3 CLUS_4
ALL 97 125 29 64
BRAF MUTATED 1 112 17 48
BRAF WILD-TYPE 96 13 12 16

Figure S5.  Get High-res Image Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #6: 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

P value = 2.35e-40 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 6.6e-38

Table S6.  Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #7: 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 106 114 102
BRAF MUTATED 7 98 77
BRAF WILD-TYPE 99 16 25

Figure S6.  Get High-res Image Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #7: 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 3.32e-43 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 9.3e-41

Table S7.  Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #8: 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 94 116 112
BRAF MUTATED 1 92 89
BRAF WILD-TYPE 93 24 23

Figure S7.  Get High-res Image Gene #1: 'BRAF MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #8: 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'CN_CNMF'

P value = 0.000222 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.059

Table S8.  Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #1: 'CN_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 25 246 49
HRAS MUTATED 0 4 8
HRAS WILD-TYPE 25 242 41

Figure S8.  Get High-res Image Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #1: 'CN_CNMF'

'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

P value = 1.48e-06 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 4e-04

Table S9.  Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #2: 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 105 52 166
HRAS MUTATED 12 0 0
HRAS WILD-TYPE 93 52 166

Figure S9.  Get High-res Image Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #2: 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'RPPA_CNMF'

P value = 9.23e-05 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.024

Table S10.  Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #3: 'RPPA_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 62 76 79
HRAS MUTATED 9 2 0
HRAS WILD-TYPE 53 74 79

Figure S10.  Get High-res Image Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #3: 'RPPA_CNMF'

'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

P value = 1.71e-05 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.0045

Table S11.  Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #5: 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3 CLUS_4
ALL 106 39 74 96
HRAS MUTATED 12 0 0 0
HRAS WILD-TYPE 94 39 74 96

Figure S11.  Get High-res Image Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #5: 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 5.23e-06 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.0014

Table S12.  Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #6: 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3 CLUS_4
ALL 97 125 29 64
HRAS MUTATED 12 0 0 0
HRAS WILD-TYPE 85 125 29 64

Figure S12.  Get High-res Image Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #6: 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

P value = 1.69e-06 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.00045

Table S13.  Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #7: 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 106 114 102
HRAS MUTATED 12 0 0
HRAS WILD-TYPE 94 114 102

Figure S13.  Get High-res Image Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #7: 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 9.25e-06 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.0025

Table S14.  Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #8: 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 94 116 112
HRAS MUTATED 11 0 1
HRAS WILD-TYPE 83 116 111

Figure S14.  Get High-res Image Gene #3: 'HRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #8: 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

P value = 6.06e-14 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 1.7e-11

Table S15.  Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #2: 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 105 52 166
NRAS MUTATED 26 0 0
NRAS WILD-TYPE 79 52 166

Figure S15.  Get High-res Image Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #2: 'METHLYATION_CNMF'

'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 0.000583 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 0.15

Table S16.  Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #4: 'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 96 32 89
NRAS MUTATED 9 5 0
NRAS WILD-TYPE 87 27 89

Figure S16.  Get High-res Image Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #4: 'RPPA_CHIERARCHICAL'

'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

P value = 1.63e-12 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 4.5e-10

Table S17.  Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #5: 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3 CLUS_4
ALL 106 39 74 96
NRAS MUTATED 26 0 0 0
NRAS WILD-TYPE 80 39 74 96

Figure S17.  Get High-res Image Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #5: 'MRNASEQ_CNMF'

'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 1.11e-13 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 3.1e-11

Table S18.  Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #6: 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3 CLUS_4
ALL 97 125 29 64
NRAS MUTATED 26 0 0 0
NRAS WILD-TYPE 71 125 29 64

Figure S18.  Get High-res Image Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #6: 'MRNASEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

P value = 1.87e-12 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 5.1e-10

Table S19.  Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #7: 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 106 114 102
NRAS MUTATED 25 0 1
NRAS WILD-TYPE 81 114 101

Figure S19.  Get High-res Image Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #7: 'MIRSEQ_CNMF'

'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

P value = 3.3e-12 (Fisher's exact test), Q value = 9e-10

Table S20.  Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #8: 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

nPatients CLUS_1 CLUS_2 CLUS_3
ALL 94 116 112
NRAS MUTATED 24 1 1
NRAS WILD-TYPE 70 115 111

Figure S20.  Get High-res Image Gene #4: 'NRAS MUTATION STATUS' versus Clinical Feature #8: 'MIRSEQ_CHIERARCHICAL'

Methods & Data
Input
  • Mutation data file = THCA-TP.mutsig.cluster.txt

  • Molecular subtypes file = THCA-TP.transferedmergedcluster.txt

  • Number of patients = 323

  • Number of significantly mutated genes = 41

  • Number of Molecular subtypes = 8

  • Exclude genes that fewer than K tumors have mutations, K = 3

Fisher's exact test

For binary or multi-class clinical features (nominal or ordinal), two-tailed Fisher's exact tests (Fisher 1922) were used to estimate the P values using the 'fisher.test' function in R

Q value calculation

For multiple hypothesis correction, Q value is the False Discovery Rate (FDR) analogue of the P value (Benjamini and Hochberg 1995), defined as the minimum FDR at which the test may be called significant. We used the 'Benjamini and Hochberg' method of 'p.adjust' function in R to convert P values into Q values.

Download Results

This is an experimental feature. The full results of the analysis summarized in this report can be downloaded from the TCGA Data Coordination Center.

References
[1] Fisher, R.A., On the interpretation of chi-square from contingency tables, and the calculation of P, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 85(1):87-94 (1922)
[2] Benjamini and Hochberg, Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 59:289-300 (1995)